{
  "report": "UNEP Limiting Overshoot - Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return",
  "date": "2026-09-02",
  "status": "UNEP spotlight report",
  "key_findings": [
    "Exceedance of 1.5°C under current policies and alternative near-term trajectories is widely assessed as unavoidable.",
    "Best-case scenario peak warming is about 1.8°C; most other scenarios peak above 2°C.",
    "Risks and impacts intensify with every fraction of a degree and every year spent above 1.5°C.",
    "Probability of crossing irreversible tipping points increases with magnitude and duration of higher temperatures.",
    "Mitigation and adaptation must advance together.",
    "Net-zero is a milestone toward net-negative; CDR is additional to, not a substitute for, sustained emissions reductions.",
    "Even with return below 1.5°C, irreversible losses and permanently changed conditions are expected."
  ],
  "assessment_interpretation": {
    "event_horizon": "Strong independent convergence with the assessment's path-dependency concept; not an adoption of the term by UNEP/IPCC.",
    "tipping_point": "Does not prove one global tipping point has been crossed; it states risk of irreversible thresholds increases with peak and overshoot duration.",
    "policy_coherence": "Fossil lock-in that raises or prolongs peak warming becomes more consequential because risk depends on both magnitude and duration of overshoot."
  },
  "sources": [
    "https://www.unep.org/resources/limiting-overshoot-navigating-exceedance",
    "https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/unep-world-set-cross-15degc-global-warming-can-still-limit-adapt-and"
  ]
}